Opinion: Lander choices set NASA up for near- and long-term Moon exploration
/I was not expecting NASA to select SpaceX as one of the three companies to build human landing systems for the Artemis program. However, since the agency is looking to make the effort sustainable during phase two, it makes complete sense.
Blue Origin was a no brainer, in my opinion. It was the most "traditional" of all of the designs. It's three-stage lander is the most likely to be selected for the first landing in 2024. Not only is the BE-7 engine for the descent element well into development by Blue Origin, the choice the company made to team up with Northrop Grumman, Draper and Lockheed Martin to form a "National Team" is a great way to leverage other companies with a history of building space hardware.
Under this National Team cooperation, Blue Origin would develop the descent element, Lockheed Martin would develop an ascent element and Northrop Grumman would develop a transfer stage to get the system from a highly elliptical lunar orbit to a low lunar orbit. It’s currently unclear how much of this architecture is expected to be reused initially or is able to evolve into a reusable configuration in the future.
My guess is the second landing mission, Artemis 4 in 2025, is likely to be awarded to Dynetics with its semi-reusable design. While the main body is fully reusable, it does require "drop tanks" during descent, which technically makes it a two-stage lander.
New drop tanks would have to be delivered and the main body refueled before additional landings could be performed, but it could make for an excellent mid-term, more-sustainable lander.
It’s also important to note that while Dynetics is the prime contractor for its design, it is part of a team of small and mid-sized businesses numbering over two dozen, the company said in a news release.
Moreover, both Blue Origin and Dynetics would require multiple commercial launch vehicles to assemble their landers in pieces, unless they make use of a dedicated Space Launch System rocket, which is unlikely.
Finally, the choice of SpaceX's Starship to be used for a dedicated Moon lander was a risky, yet bold, choice. Its single stage design would make it a perfect spacecraft for the end of phase two of Artemis.
However, it still requires the development of tanker Starship spacecraft for on-orbit refueling. While the lunar lander version of the vehicle wouldn't return to Earth, the tankers would.
This means this architecture still necessitates the full Starship development with aerodynamic fins and a heat shield for any spacecraft that returns to Earth. But it wouldn't have to be human rated for launch from Earth as that would be done uncrewed.
Because of this, I do not believe this ship would be ready in time for 2024 or even 2025. Beyond that is anybody's guess. But if it is successful, and it its funding is continued beyond the 10-month base period, it could help set the stage for NASA to use Starship on missions to Mars and beyond.
In all cases, these landers would be assembled/sent to (presumably) a near-rectilinear halo orbit. There, they would ether dock with the Lunar Gateway, if its ready, or wait for a crewed Orion spacecraft to meet with it to transfer some or all of the mission's crew.
Regardless of what actually happens — remember, all of this still needs funded beyond the 10-month base period — these choices reflect a NASA willing to try new and bold things in order to open up deep space for regular, sustainable access by humans by the end of this decade.
This opinion piece first appeared in the May 2020 edition of Orbital Velocity’s monthly newsletter called “The Space Capsule,” which delivers directly to your email inbox a monthly snapshot of ongoing International Space Station activities and the progress of NASA’s Artemis program. It publishes on the first Tuesday of each month. Subscribe today!
