Opinion: The future of the Artemis program under Joe Biden
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A rendering of two astronauts on a moonwalk with the proposed Lunar Terrain Vehicle. Credit: NASA
With the election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the next president and vice president of the United States, I felt it best to talk about what is likely to happen in the coming months regarding human spaceflight and NASA as the Biden administration takes over the executive branch of the federal government.
For now, there are just 49 months until the 2024 deadline for NASA to return humans to the Moon. This deadline was set by the 49th vice president of the United States, Mike Pence, in March 2019. Since then a lot of progress has been made at reorganizing existing projects around the central goal of landing the first woman and next man on the Moon.
With the appointment of Jim Bridenstine as NASA administrator, a lot of public and political outreach had been done successfully to the point of actually getting funding for a human rated lunar lander in the national budget.
However, with the Trump administration coming to an end on Jan. 20, 2021, and the newly-elected 46th president of the United States set to be sworn in and take the oath of office, a lot is up in there air as to what will happen next. Will the administration deem Artemis not a worthy national priority in favor of more social spending? Or will the program continue along as is, albeit with less of an emphasis on the 2024 goal set by the Trump administration?
The answers to these questions will likely require months, or longer, to clearly receive. However, the first sign of how things might continue will be through the Human Landing System contracts. Currently, Blue Origin, Dynetics and SpaceX are working on proposals for systems to return humans to the surface of the Moon. That contract is set to expire in early spring 2021, at which point NASA hopes to narrow down the companies and select one or two for a follow-on contract.
Should NASA decide to postpone the selection, one might be able to assume 2024 is no longer an internal goal.
Additionally, since NASA is unlikely to get its requested funding for the Human Landing System for FY2021, this will almost certainly require a postponement in the selection process.
2024, as much as I or anybody else wanted it to be, was not realistic, given the realities of politics, budgets and now a global health crisis. As for the incoming Biden administration, while it hasn't been hostile toward human spaceflight, it has Climate Change research as one of its priorities, according to their transition website. This is still well within the purview of NASA's mission and one might expect budget proposals emphasizing those missions over others.
However, the Biden administration's transition website emphasizes building back better. This includes areas such as infrastructure, transit, the power sector and innovation. There's no reason to believe returning to the Moon can't be a part of the administration's goals. In fact, many of the rockets and spacecraft being built for Artemis started under both the George W Bush administration and Obama administration, the latter of which Biden served as vice president.
Moreover, any spending on human space exploration, or any major project of that caliber, creates high-paying jobs. Such a highly-skilled workforce would filter throughout the economy. The money those employees and contractors would earn would be spent here on Earth at local malls, stores, restaurants, entertainment venues, etc.
Many of the goals of both the International Space Station and Artemis quite nicely line up with that of the president-elect's. That includes international cooperation, something a Biden administration will likely be keen on refocusing on. The ISS and Artemis programs could be seen as shining examples of what international cooperation can bring.
Earthrise as seen by the Apollo 8 crew in 1968. Credit: NASA
So, my prediction for the near-term (because any long-term predictions are way too hard to tell with everything ongoing at the moment), is that Jim Bridenstine will step down as NASA administrator. He's already signaled his intent to do so and this is a normal practice when a new president takes charge. And while the 2024 date won't explicitly be "canceled," I do believe it'll be quietly erased from NASA's outreach until something more firm is established.
What happens next will likely depend on who ends up controlling the U.S. Senate (there are two runoff elections slated for Jan. 5, which could determine if Republicans hold onto a 52-48 majority or the Democrats split the chamber 50-50 with Vice President Harris coming in every now and then to break a tie vote).
How the Senate responds to President Biden's policy proposals, such as those concerning the Coronavirus pandemic, could set the mood for the next several years. Both Democrats and Republicans tend to support spending on space exploration projects. The difference primarily comes down to who's districts and states will benefit the most.
I even think both sides of the political aisle support the Artemis program. There are just questions on how much money NASA actually needs for the endeavor and if 2024 was ever a realistic deadline.
A rendering of the Lunar Gateway with international modules attached. Credit: NASA
Shifting that deadline to 2026 may be a compromise Congress settles on, assuming the current divisive environment in politics cools off for a time.
Artemis, in my opinion, will continue. The SLS will still fly, at least with the hardware that has been contracted out to date. I believe we'll see a crew fly around the Moon by 2023 or 2024. I believe the initial Gateway modules will launch between 2024 and 2026.
The big wild card will be the Human Landing Systems and how much of their own money Blue Origin, Dynetics and SpaceX are willing to put in the game in addition to their government contracts. At least one company, SpaceX, has already demonstrated its intent to do so with its Starship design.
In fact, the longer the HLS program gets delayed, the more SpaceX can prove out its system. I feel it'll take longer than some, including Elon Musk, would like. But I do believe an orbital flight of the Super Heavy Starship system is probable within 2021 or 2022. Once that happens, and SpaceX can demonstrate on-orbit refueling, then the company stands a real chance at becoming the lead player in Artemis.
Time will tell. Don't lose faith. This is still the best time to be a fan of space exploration, without a doubt.
The Blue Origin-led National Team submitted its Option A proposal to land the first woman and next man on the Moon in partnership with NASA. Credit: Blue Origin
This was originally published in the December 2020 edition of Orbital Velocity’s newsletter “The Space Capsule.”
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